How countries go broke: the big cycle

Introduction

Part I Overview of the big debt cycle. The big debt cycle in a tiny nutshell ; The mechanics and concepts ; The mechanics in numbers and equations

Part II The archetypical sequence leading to central governments and centrals banks going broke. The archetypical sequence ; The private sector and central government debt crisis (stages 1-4) ; The crisis spills over to the central bank (stages 5-6) ; The prior big debt crisis recedes, a new equilibrium is reached, and a new cycle can begin (stages 7-9) ; The overall big cycle

Part III Looking back. From 1865 to 1945 in a tiny nutshell ; A brief review of the big debt cycle from 1945 to now ; 1945 to 1971

a linked (i.e., hard) monetary system ; 1971 to 2008

a flat money, interest-rate-driven monetary policy ; 2008-2020

fiat money and debt monetization ; Since 2020

pandemic and big fiscal deficits monetized ; China's big cycle from 1945-49 until now in a tiny nutshell ; The Japanese case and the lessons it provides

Part IV Looking ahead. What my indicators show ; My 3% 3-part solution ; What the future looks like to me.